European 2022 Late Winter Forecast

As oil and natural gas prices hit record highs, Europeans are expecting to pay a premium just to stay warm through the remainder of this winter. Salient’s seasonal forecast engine is predicting a relatively mild next two months for most of Europe. We expect the average home to require 1-2.5 °C less daily heating this March. Figures 1 and 2 show our temperature anomaly forecasts for March and April.

In terms of heating degree days (HDD) in March, most of Europe sits in the range of 10-25 °C HDD per day (Figure 3). This is 1-2.5 °C less heating required than the climatological mean of the past 30 years, as spatially depicted in Figure 4.

Heating degree days in April are also expected to be less than climatology. Figure 5 shows the average HDD forecast, and Figure 6 shows the forecast’s anomaly from climatology.

References:
‍https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-energy-dominance-ties-wests-hands-in-ukraine-war-11645884001
‍https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/europe-s-energy-bill-will-near-record-1-2-trillion-in-2022-citi-says-1.1728693