European 2022 Late Winter Forecast

Eric Schmitt

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As oil and natural gas prices hit record highs, Europeans are expecting to pay a premium just to stay warm through the remainder of this winter. Salient’s seasonal forecast engine is predicting a relatively mild next two months for most of Europe. We expect the average home to require 1-2.5 °C less daily heating this March. Figures 1 and 2 show our temperature anomaly forecasts for March and April.

Figure 1: Salient’s forecasted temperature anomaly for March, 2022. Forecast made on Feb 27. Anomaly is based on a 30 year climatology.
Figure 2: Salient’s forecasted temperature anomaly for April, 2022. Forecast made on Feb 27. Anomaly is based on a 30 year climatology.

In terms of heating degree days (HDD) in March, most of Europe sits in the range of 10-25 °C HDD per day (Figure 3). This is 1-2.5 °C less heating required than the climatological mean of the past 30 years, as spatially depicted in Figure 4.

Figure 3: Heating degree days (HDD) over the next 30 days (normalized to daily). Forecast made on Feb 27.
Figure 4: Days 1-30 average daily HDD anomaly from climatology. Forecast made on Feb 27.

Heating degree days in April are also expected to be less than climatology. Figure 5 shows the average HDD forecast, and Figure 6 shows the forecast’s anomaly from climatology.

Figure 5: Days 31-60 (April) average daily HDD (°C). Forecast made on Feb 27.
Figure 6: Days 31-60 (April) average daily HDD anomaly from climatology (°C). Forecast made on Feb 27.

References:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-energy-dominance-ties-wests-hands-in-ukraine-war-11645884001
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/europe-s-energy-bill-will-near-record-1-2-trillion-in-2022-citi-says-1.1728693

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